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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still